Note to Readers: This weekend, we will be releasing our October Investment Strategy report inside our Community for our members & friends. As will show you soon with a public exclusive content release, we sent an early warning on Apple in our September 1st Half Strategy Report. Will you believe that we discussed this in early Sept, when almost no one else was discussing it?
Our ideas take time to play out. But when they do, you will be in a FAR stronger position than many other market participants.
We continue to believe that only the strongest market participants equipped with the best research and the best strategists on their side will prevail. If you have questions about your strategy or about U.S. & China Macro, talk to Strategist Larry inside. You have questions. We have answers.
“Equities remain at the mercy of economic data and the bond market. Economic data remains solid (PCE, Jobs, etc.) albeit backwards looking and, in concert with the fed commentary, won’t allow for the market to be constructive just yet.” - J.P. Morgan
“The Oversold Entry Level: in past 100 years -20% below 200dma good entry point back into stocks (= 3374 today, which also maps into pre-COVID 2020 high); this has worked always except 1931 depression, 1937 Fed policy mistake, 1974 stagflation, 2008 GFC; monster undershoot requires monster credit event & recession” - Bank of America
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
For over a decade, there hasn’t been much optionality with getting returns. It was simply invest in the stock market and don’t look because the Fed has your back.
We’re now in a different regime.
“Markets stop panicking when Central Banks start panicking: BoJ buys yen, BoE flips from QT to QE = panic, but neither credible (BoE QE + tax cuts = inflation, BoJ YCC)” - Bank of America
The consumer squeeze continues as savings decline and credit card debt ticks up. After data revisions, the personal savings rate is sitting at 3.5% (10Y avg. = 7%-8%).
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
“Current macro stress level has exceeded those from 2002 in the middle of corporate scandals, and the summer of 2012 near the dawn of QE3 and 2016 post-Brexit. However,those three are important junctures of the multi-decade disinflationary spiral during globalization, while today’s stress originates from the exact opposite, de-globalization and inflation” - Bank of America
We want to take a moment to thank Interactive Brokers for being one of our Channel’s trusted Partners and to inform my audience of the special features they have given that our online friends here closely follow Chinese Internet stocks (BABA/Tencent).
Much of Larry’s audience is concerned about the US ADR issue of Chinese Stocks being delisted.
