9.26.22: Will there be more turbulence ahead?
Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List
Note to Readers: During periods of market volatility, the proven strategy is to lengthen your time horizon and reduce the frequency of your transactions. Transacting frequently in fast-moving/choppy markets is guaranteed to produce errors. Reduce your errors, and maintain your composure. If you need guidance and would like to talk directly with Strategist Larry on your positioning, you’re welcome to join us.
We will continue to provide our Public audience best-in-class general overviews and our Private Community actionable strategy when opportunity arises. Remember that if there’s no need to make a transaction, then don’t transact. Become an Investor, and not a Trader.
This email is brought to you by Interactive Brokers, one of our preferred brokerages to buy HK-Listed Shares in our China Internet Equity Coverage Universe.
In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:
Brief Snapshot of U.S. & China markets and valuation
Our Analyst Team’s Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar Snapshot
Notable Chart from Media Outlets
Fear & Greed Index Recap
I hope you find this newsletter to be insightful and enjoyable! - Larry and Team
U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
(Powered by our Channel Financial Data Provider YCharts)
S&P 500 Index: 3693.23
KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $24.93
Analyst Team Note:
We’re now retesting June lows…
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
“The foundation of the post-pandemic rally -- ultra-low interest rates and monetary stimulus -- has crumbled. In its place now stand elevated borrowing costs and tighter financial conditions that have forced investors into cash-preservation mode.” - Bloomberg
TINA (There is no alternative) is dead. From money market funds to short-dated bonds and floating-rate notes, low-risk returns with attractive yields are back.
Upcoming Economic Calendar
(Powered by our Channel Financial Data Provider YCharts)
U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
Analyst Team Note:
According to China’s Construction Bank (CCB), it will set aside RMB30 billion to buy existing properties from developers and then renovate into rental housing. The purpose is to inject some liquidity to developers and to ensure the projects' completion.
The CCB’s announced rescue fund is probably a part of the broader-based scheme previously reported by Reuters (which indicated CCB would contribute RMB50bn as the first stage of the war-chest rescue fund that could total up to RMB200-300bn).
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
“Money-funds, banks and others are so flush with cash these days that they’re shoveling record amounts into the Fed’s [reverse repo facility], a short-term instrument that pays a rate of 3.05%.
Looking further, there’s another $18 trillion in deposits at US commercial banks and US banks are sitting on about $6.4 trillion of surplus liquidity, or excess deposits relative to loans, up from about $250 billion in 2008.” - Bloomberg
Sentiment Check
We want to take a moment to thank Interactive Brokers for being one of our Channel’s trusted Partners and to inform my audience of the special features they have given that our online friends here closely follow Chinese Internet stocks (BABA/Tencent).
Much of Larry’s audience is concerned about the US ADR issue of Chinese Stocks being delisted.
Interactive brokers allows investors to buy HK-listed shares of Alibaba, JD, Tencent, and other brand name Chinese Internet companies on the HK market. This will effectively reduce any confusion or work you will have to do in case there is the event of delisting US ADRs
Make sure to check Larry’s most recent market updates via his personal newsletter. See you in our next update.