9.2.22: September will be a month of Opportunity. Only a select few will be in a position to take advantage of it. Be in that camp.
Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry's Analyst Staff Team.
Note to Readers: September is now here. We believe the biggest risks (and rewards) could be lurking this month. Out of continued goodwill to our community, Strategist Larry will be releasing another exclusive Patreon research note here so that you can see what we have been advocating for: one on August 8th where we discussed the upper end of the range and another on August 22nd to reiterate his opinion to reduce risk.
We are unaware of any other Investment Community that continues to share its premium research to the public time and time again. Our committment to a long-term relationship with our audience is unprecedented at a time when such guidance is this critical.
And as the Bear Market continues in full force, our committment to help our viewers and readers only gets stronger from here. We have (and will continue to) help many good folks survive this bear market. Folks who have been with us are not enduring the same pain that many outsiders are. The moment you are inside, you will see exactly why. We hope to help more people.
Ultimately, we are also realistic and know that once the long and grueling bear market ends, very few people in the investor population will be able to enjoy the bull market that subsequently ensues. With sincerity, we want you to be in that camp to not just survive the bear market but capitalize on the opportunities that are coming.
We advocated for reducing risk at the height of the counter-trend rally. If you missed this critical opinion, do not miss the next one. Join us today if you are seeking a mentor in this market. The exclusive posts below have been made public for all to view and read.
This email is brought to you by Interactive Brokers, one of our preferred brokerages to buy HK-Listed Shares in our China Internet Equity Coverage Universe.
In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:
Brief Snapshot of U.S. & China markets and valuation
Our Analyst Team’s Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar Snapshot
Notable Chart from Media Outlets
Fear & Greed Index Recap
I hope you find this newsletter to be insightful and enjoyable! - Larry and Team
U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
(Powered by our Channel Financial Data Provider YCharts)
S&P 500 Index:
KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF:
Analyst Team Note:
In Larry’s note to Patreon members yesterday:
“It is more likely that the indexes face more of a whiplash action than a clear trend… Today, with the S&P 500 back at a 34 RSI and a ~16x forward earnings multiple, I believe we face more choppiness than a clear directional trend over the next 2 weeks.”
And what happened today was exactly that: a whiplash that continued to intentionally deceive investors who are seduced by Price.
We continue to focus heavily on the Macro as this is a time for capital preservation rather than investing for alpha.
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
A hard-hitting note from one of the most accurate analysts on the Street, BofA’s Michael Hartnett:
Applying the avg. 20th century P/E of 15x gets you an S&P 500 at 3300 (The BofA View). But applying the avg. 21st century P/E of 20x gets you an S&P 500 at 4400.
Drivers of high 21st century P/E are all reversing: QE, fiscal austerity, free movement of trade, geopolitical peace…
New regime of higher inflation means secular view remains cash, commodities, volatility to outperform bonds & stocks…
First nibble is 3600/3700 SPX; new highs in yields, new lows in stocks.
Linked here is the full note from Hartnett. Thank you for reading our newsletter!
Upcoming Economic Calendar
(Powered by our Channel Financial Data Provider YCharts)
U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
Analyst Team Note:
Job numbers are out…
Nonfarm payrolls increased 315,000 last month following a 526,000 increase in July.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high of 3.7%, the first increase since January. Economists were projecting an almost 300,000 gain in payrolls and a 3.5% unemployment rate.
The labor force participation rate -- the share of the population that is working or looking for work -- advanced to 62.4%, matching the highest since March 2020.
The participation rate for workers ages 25-54 rose by the most since June 2020 to 82.8%. Teen participation also surged.
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons jumped for a second month.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from the prior month and were up 5.2% from a year earlier.
Source: Bloomberg
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
The year-to-date change in prices at the pump is now below average for the normal year. However, I (Tim) still believe that there is still a case to be made for structurally high gas prices as supply is still constrained.
Sentiment Check
We want to take a moment to thank Interactive Brokers for being one of our Channel’s trusted Partners and to inform my audience of the special features they have given that our online friends here closely follow Chinese Internet stocks (BABA/Tencent).
Much of Larry’s audience is concerned about the US ADR issue of Chinese Stocks being delisted.
Interactive brokers allows investors to buy HK-listed shares of Alibaba, JD, Tencent, and other brand name Chinese Internet companies on the HK market. This will effectively reduce any confusion or work you will have to do in case there is the event of delisting US ADRs
Words of Affirmation from Inside: One Small Step Today Will Lead to Big Progress Tomorrow. Seek out a Strategist who cares about you.
