9.11.23: Markets shrug off higher yields and macro worries ahead of incoming CPI data. Will that turn out to be wise?
For Public Readers: Weekly Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry Cheung's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List
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Make sure to check out Interactive Brokers above as idle cash now will yield more than 4.5% as the Fed just raised rates.
Note to readers from Larry: As of now, I am sharing one of the most powerful Institutional Investor strategies to my Members inside my Community. However, I recognize that this strategy is quite capital intensive and more readily implemented for a certain type of investor. One of the things I will be looking to do is to actively research additional strategies that can help members with all account sizes benefit from my market views. Stay tuned.
My current strategy using Options typically only requires about a 30-45 day holding period before results materialize, but tends to work better on larger accounts. My previous intermediate-term Direct Shares strategy works too - but because it’s a Direct Shares position, the variance is larger and there is somewhat less flexibility in managing the position after entry.
My most recent two posts are here:
Key Investing Resource: Strategist Larry uses Interactive Brokers as his core brokerage. Feel free to check out IB. I currently park excess cash at Interactive Brokers. Check it out. It’s a great brokerage.
In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:
Brief Overview of U.S. & China Markets
Macro Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar
Chart That Caught Our Eye
U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
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S&P 500 Index: 4457.49
KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $27.49
Analyst Team Note:
Instacart is preparing for its forthcoming IPO, targeting a valuation between $8.6 billion and $9.3 billion, significantly lower than its previous valuation of approximately $39 billion in 2021.
This reflects a wider trend of diminishing investor interest in private growth companies, particularly as interest rates have risen, making high-risk investments less appealing. Despite substantial profit growth over the past year and a revenue boost during the pandemic, the growth of Instacart's core delivery business has plateaued.
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
While real rates are at 20-year highs and equity risk premia are at lows, using recent data to predict future trends is misleading, especially considering the past two decades have witnessed unique conditions such as smooth globalization and unparalleled stimulus measures.
The 2010s' depressed real rates and increased equity risk premium, influenced by cheap financing and buybacks, can distort the perspective. If you look at a longer timeframe, say 50 years, today's real yields remain well below the average, and the equity risk premium is higher than its average before the Global Financial Crisis.
Upcoming Economic Calendar
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U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
Analyst Team Note:
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
Contrary to common perceptions of the S&P 500 being too concentrated, the index is actualy one of the least concentrated globally. For instance, while the top 10 firms in the S&P 500 represent 31% of the total market cap, Germany's DAX and France's CAC both have around 60% of their market cap represented by their top 10 firms, with other indices, like Spain's IBEX and Ireland's ISEQ, showing even more extreme concentrations.
Foreign stock markets, especially in Europe, are more top-heavy and have greater market concentration in their top 10 listed firms compared to the U.S. S&P 500.
Sentiment Check
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