5.5.23: Apple Delivers A Blow To Bears. But Bears are not yet quite finished.

For Public Readers: Weekly Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry Cheung's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List

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May 06, 2023

Note to Readers from Larry: Here’s the most recent piece that we made public from our Investment Community on the latest banking turmoil, where I believed key names like American Express and Interactive Brokers would stage a near-term decent recovery.

Hope you all have a good weekend. Will be back with more STRAT later. ✌️

Letters from Larry: U.S & China Investment Strategy

5/4 Strat Note: Banking Stocks To Watch For A Tactical Rebound Post PacWest Failure

Members, Just a quick tactical note. This will be informal and concise. About 2 Months ago during the SVB crisis back in March, I found opportunities to help our folks here to take advantage of tactical disloc…

2 years ago · 9 likes · Larry Cheung, CFA

Key Investing Resource: Strategist Larry uses Interactive Brokers as his core brokerage. Feel free to check out IB. I currently park excess cash (yielding 4.5%+ on idle cash) at Interactive Brokers

In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:

Brief Overview of U.S. & China Markets
Macro Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar
Chart That Caught Our Eye

U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳

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S&P 500 Index: 4061.22

KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $27.33

Analyst Team Note:
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Macro Chart In Focus

Analyst Team Note:
“0% to 5% in 15 months; Fed hiking cycles always ‘break’ something…this time US regional banking system (Chart 3); credit event normally means panic Fed ease, but inflation too high, unemployment too low, so sell the last rate hike.” - Michael Hartnett, BofA
“Yesterday’s Fed rate hike brings fed funds rate to highest since 2007; upper bound of 5.25% is what terminal rate was in that cycle…back then, it took 2 years to get there from prior lower bound; this time, it took just over a year…y/y change (orange) still fastest since 1980s” - Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab

Upcoming Economic Calendar

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U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)

China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)

Analyst Team Note:
In April, US hiring and workers' pay gains accelerated, demonstrating labor-market resilience and increasing inflationary pressures amid economic challenges. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 253,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to a multi-decade low of 3.4%.
Despite concerns about high interest rates, inflation, and tightening credit conditions, labor demand remains resilient. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates for a potential final time in this cycle to control inflation. In April, average hourly earnings increased by 0.5%, the highest in about a year, and were up 4.4% from a year ago.

Chart That Caught Our Eye

Analyst Team Note:
Market Funds saw $47 billion of INFLOWS, pushing the aggregate to a record high of $5.31 trillion. That is over $100 billion of inflows in two weeks...