4.16.24: Retail Sales Exceeds All Expectations as Consumer Resilience Continues

For Public Readers: Weekly Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry Cheung's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List

Apr 16, 2024

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In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:

Brief Overview of U.S. & China Markets
Macro Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar
Chart That Caught Our Eye

U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳

(Powered by our Channel Financial Data Provider YCharts)

S&P 500 Index: 5061.82

KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $25.96

Analyst Team Note:
30 S&P 500 companies (10% of index earnings) have reported so far. Reported EPS beat by 6%, driven by Financials (+0.7% ex. Fins) and 80% beat on EPS vs. 67% post-Week 1 average.
Q1 consensus EPS is down 2% since April 1.
Consensus now expects just 1% EPS growth (vs +8% YoY in 4Q) despite easier comps.

Macro Chart In Focus

Analyst Team Note:
In March, U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.7% from February, with non-auto and gasoline sales increasing by 1.0%.
This performance, bolstered by gains in e-commerce and spending at restaurants and grocery stores, suggests that consumer spending still remains strong as we enter Q2.

Upcoming Economic Calendar

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U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)

China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)

Analyst Team Note:
In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey.
This was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.
Economists also expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter. Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

Chart That Caught Our Eye

Analyst Team Note:
The premium for one-month put options to protect against a pullback in US equities reached the highest since October.
The skew on the VIX index has shown growing demand for calls as traders position for protection. For one-month options, the skew is the highest since October.