3.11.24: BoJ Expected to END Negative Rates
For Public Readers: Weekly Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry Cheung's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List
Make sure to check out Interactive Brokers above as idle cash now will yield more than 4.5% as the Fed just raised rates.
Key Investing Resource: Strategist Larry uses Interactive Brokers as his core brokerage. Feel free to check out IB. I currently park excess cash at Interactive Brokers. Check it out. It’s a great brokerage.
In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:
Brief Overview of U.S. & China Markets
Macro Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar
Chart That Caught Our Eye
U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
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S&P 500 Index: 5110.10
KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $25.77
Analyst Team Note:
Investors are increasingly using short-volatility strategies, leveraging ETFs that sell options on stocks or indexes to enhance returns.
Although the current structure of these funds, which combine options with long stock positions, might mitigate contagion risks, the sheer scale of short-volatility positions could set the stage for a feedback loop..
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
In spite of the fastest tightening cycle in history, the US consumer has shown resilience.
Debt service and financial obligation ratios have increased but remain below pre-pandemic levels, with around 90% of US homeowners benefiting from fixed-rate mortgages.
Upcoming Economic Calendar
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U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
Analyst Team Note:
The Bank of Japan is expected to end its negative interest rate policy, the last of its kind globally, in the coming weeks.
This shift would mark Japan's first rate hike since 2007 and comes after years of quantitative easing and negative rates that did not significantly drive inflation until external supply shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions emerged.
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
"Market tops take many months to build, forming an inverted U-shape, and spending a significant amount of time within 20% of their peak price...Markets bottoms on the other hand are V-shaped and are much more sudden affairs." - ZeroHedge
Sentiment Check
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