12.18.23: 40% of Student Loan Borrowers Missed their First Payment
For Public Readers: Weekly Key U.S. and China brief market notes by Larry Cheung's Analyst Staff Team for our Public Email List
Make sure to check out Interactive Brokers above as idle cash now will yield more than 4.5% as the Fed just raised rates.
Key Investing Resource: Strategist Larry uses Interactive Brokers as his core brokerage. Feel free to check out IB. I currently park excess cash at Interactive Brokers. Check it out. It’s a great brokerage.
In our emails, we will provide the following coverage points:
Brief Overview of U.S. & China Markets
Macro Chart in Focus
U.S. & China Upcoming Economic Calendar
Chart That Caught Our Eye
U.S and China Markets Brief Snapshot 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
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S&P 500 Index: 4719.19
KWEB (Chinese Internet) ETF: $27.34
Analyst Team Note:
Bloomberg News analyzed 75 of the largest corporate acquisitions over the past five years with a combined value of almost $1.3 trillion.
The search found that:
Less than half of the companies have managed to cut leverage ratios since their acquisitions
Almost a third of the 75 firms have a leverage ratio above 3.5, compared with 16 at the time of the acquisitions, suggesting ratings companies have so far given buyers lots of leeway to deliver savings or to make deals a success
Average net debt to EBITDA stands at 2.7, compared with 2.4 previously
Macro Chart In Focus
Analyst Team Note:
In June 2023, Congress ended the student loan payment pause, affecting over 28 million borrowers. As of mid-November, only 60% of the 22 million borrowers due for payments in October have complied, with the U.S. Department of Education introducing measures to ease this transition.
These include a 12-month on-ramp period to protect against delinquency, the SAVE Plan offering income-driven repayments, and debt cancellation initiatives benefiting millions, particularly through reformed Public Service Loan Forgiveness.
Per BofA, “if younger generations are currently making use of the ‘on ramp,’ which allows repayments to be delayed further without affecting their credit rating, the negative impact on spending may build relatively slowly”.
Upcoming Economic Calendar
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U.S Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
China Economic Calendar (Upcoming Data Points)
Analyst Team Note:
In 2023, many middle-class households in China faced significant financial challenges due to a downturn in the real estate and stock markets, leading to substantial decreases in household wealth.
The decline in property values, which form a large part of family assets in China, has had a particularly severe impact, with even small drops in home prices leading to massive losses in housing wealth.
Additionally, the underperformance of financial investments, including stocks and mutual funds, and low returns on bank products, has left few options for wealth growth, causing people to adopt more conservative financial strategies and focus on wealth protection.
Chart That Caught Our Eye
Analyst Team Note:
The selection process for Federal Reserve regional bank presidents has become lengthier and more complex over the past decade.
Searches now average eight months, a significant increase from less than six months in the previous decade.
Factors contributing to the longer search times include increased involvement of Fed leaders in Washington, stricter financial disclosure rules, and heightened political scrutiny, with Congress urging greater diversity and transparency.
Recent searches have also faced challenges due to stricter conflict of interest rules and the desire to find candidates with specific regional ties.
Sentiment Check
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